scott pianowski
Fantasy analyst
·5 min read
The Shuffle Up series keeps rolling along. This is how I'd rank all the fantasy quarterbacks if I were headed into a fresh draft starting today. What's happened to this point is merely an audition.
The prices are unscientific in nature, and players at the same price are considered even. The idea is to get a sense of where values cluster, and what tiers the players belong in.
Where you see an asterisk, that means "check status" — and it's not necessarily injury status.
Let's get to it. I welcome your respectful disagreement, as always: @scott_pianowski.
The Big Tickets
$37 Jalen Hurts
$36 Josh Allen
$35 Patrick Mahomes
$32 Lamar Jackson
$31 Dak Prescott
$31 Joe Burrow (before the season-ending injury)
$30 Justin Herbert
$30 Tua Tagovailoa
Prescott is the big mover in this group, coming off an amazing four-game stretch: QB1, QB3, QB2, QB1. CeeDee Lamb has taken the alpha leap, Jake Ferguson is an auto-start tight end and the struggles of Tony Pollard have forced Dallas to open up the offense. Dallas is also facing a lovely schedule, with possible shootouts looming for the entire fantasy playoffs: Philadelphia, Buffalo, Miami, Detroit.
Hurts has been less eager to run between the 20s, but so long as the goal-line equity remains (and Philly shows no sign of backing off that) and A.J. Brown is healthy, Hurts commands the top spot on this list.
Baltimore is generally a knuckleball team, and that's the case this year, with Gus Edwards getting more goal-line work than expected and Keaton Mitchell emerging as a weekly touch stealer. Jackson's now lost Mark Andrews for the season and also had trouble completely clicking with any of his wideouts; Zay Flowers should be a star someday, but he's not there yet. Jackson's come in as QB28, QB18 and QB16 in his last three starts. A tricky trip to San Francisco is parked in Week 17.
Legitimate Building Blocks
$25 C.J. Stroud
$25 Jared Goff
$22 Joshua Dobbs
$22 Justin Fields*
$21 Kyler Murray
$20 Brock Purdy
$19 Sam Howell
Dobbs miraculously continues to play well, despite changing teams twice and taking his first Minnesota snaps before he met all of his new teammates or had time to nail down cadences. Dobbs is on a QB7, QB5, QB3 wave, his rushing skills present a nice backboard and it looks like Justin Jefferson is ready to return. Yahtzee.
Murray was willing to run in his debut, though it was frustrating to see the Cardinals farm out a goal-line score to Clayton Tune. Murray also showed reasonable chemistry with some of his teammates, though we wanted Hollywood Brown to check in, too. Bottom line, Murray played better than I expected last week, and although the floor might not be sturdy here, he's a welcome glass of upside for any managers who have been struggling at the position. The Bears and Eagles could be good Murray matchups in the fantasy playoffs.
Howell has Circle of Trust privileges now, trimming the sack rate, playing in an offense that wants to throw the ball like crazy and being forced to keep up with a Washington defense that can't stop anything right now. Washington's receiver room is also decent.
Stroud's coming off two amazing comeback victories, and he might get his full receiver room healthy for Week 11. His tape is one of the first ones I play every Monday. And even with Devin Singletary coming off a stunning 150-yard performance in Week 10, the Texans realize this has to be an offense driven by the downfield passing game.
Talk Them Up, Talk Them Down
$17 Trevor Lawrence
$16 Russell Wilson
$16 Geno Smith
$13 Baker Mayfield
$12 Matthew Stafford
$12 Jordan Love
$10 Will Levis
$8 Gardner Minshew
$7 Derek Carr*
Lawrence still doesn't have a 20-point finish in basic Yahoo scoring, and every week it looks like he and Calvin Ridley met five minutes before the game. And Lawrence isn't elevating Evan Engram either — Engram has 68 targets (and 55 catches) without a touchdown, the busiest bagel in the league.
No one expects Love to be great right away, but we'd like him to at least be competent, to offer plausible paths to the other skill players in Green Bay. Love's solid play at Pittsburgh could be a starting point. Now, the Packers return home and attack a Chargers defense that is getting cooked on the back end. If the Packers are going to be even a quasi-fantasy destination, it will show up this week.
I don't have confidence that the Buccaneers offense will survive at San Francisco, but Mayfield's league average or better in every indexed quarterback metric this year. He might be the type of fantasy quarterback who's better rostered without being watched, but he also is tied to talent that can drag him, especially Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. By default, the Bucs have become the NFC South team which frustrates me the least. Maybe that's damning with faint praise, but that's the quarterback-uneven world we navigate in 2023.
Bargain Bin
$5 Bryce Young
$5 Kenny Pickett
$5 Desmond Ridder*
$4 Aidan O'Connell
$3 Mac Jones*
$2 Taylor Heinicke*
$2 Dorian Thompson-Robinson
$ Jake Browning
$1 Zach Wilson
$1 Tommy DeVito
$1 Bailey Zappe*
